The computer models that pick NFL games are on fire — here are the picks for Week 7

Joe Sargent/Getty

Week 7 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modelling system used by Nate Silver’s data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood that a team will win – which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 71.1% of the games over the last three weeks and 66.2% overall. Elo has also nailed 71.1% over the last three weeks and is not far behind overall at 61.0%. Both models went 11-4 in Week 6.

Here are the picks for Week 7, with each model’s per cent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

“Thursday Night Football”

Ralph Freso/Getty Images
  • Denver Broncos (-1) at Arizona Cardinals –CARDINALS (Elo 61%), BRONCOS(Cortana 61%)

Sunday morning game in London

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
  • Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) –CHARGERS (Elo 62%, Cortana 61%)

Sunday afternoon games — early window

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
  • New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears –PATRIOTS (Elo 60%, Cortana 63%)
  • Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) –BILLS (Elo 52%), COLTS (Cortana 57%)
  • Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (-3) –DOLPHINS (Elo 56%), LIONSCortana 55%)
  • Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at New York Jets –VIKINGS (Elo 56%, Cortana 53%)
  • Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) –EAGLES (Elo 69%, Cortana 67%)
  • Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) –BUCS (Elo 77%, Cortana 67%)
  • Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5) –JAGS (Elo 72%, Cortana 61%)

Sunday afternoon games — late window

Al Bello/Getty
  • New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) –RAVENS (Elo 57%, Cortana 60%)
  • Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers –RAMS (Elo 71%, Cortana 74%)
  • Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5) –REDSKINS (Elo 53%, Cortana 53%)

“Sunday Night Football”

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6) –CHIEFS (Elo 76%, Cortana 63%)

“Monday Night Football”

  • New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) –FALCONS (Elo 80%, Cortana 69%)

Now check out this week’s power rankings.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where all 32 teams stand going into Week 7

Business Insider Emails & Alerts

Site highlights each day to your inbox.

Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.