The computer models that pick NFL games have made their picks for Week 15

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  • Elo and Cortana have made their picks for Week 15.
  • Cortana leads the overall race, correctly picking 66% of the games this season.

Week 15 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modelling system used by Nate Silver’s data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. Each gives a likelihood that a team will win, however, which in theory could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana is off to a strong start this season, correctly picking 66% of the games, including a 9-7 record in Week 14. Elo has nailed 60% overall.

Here are the picks for Week 15, with each team’s per cent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are for reference,via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.


“Thursday Night Football”

  • Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) – CHIEFS (Elo 66%, Cortana 60%)

Saturday

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  • Houston Texans (-6.5) at New York Jets –TEXANS (Elo 64%, Cortana 73%)
  • Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-2.5) –BRONCOS (Elo 69%, Cortana 57%)

Sunday-afternoon games — early window

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  • Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7) –VIKINGS (Elo 72%, Cortana 69%)
  • Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) –BENGALS (Elo 66%, Cortana 57%)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) –RAVENS (Elo 76%, Cortana 77%)
  • Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3) –COWBOYS (Elo 53%); COLTS(Cortana 60%)
  • Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2) – LIONS(Elo 51%); BILLS (Cortana 53%)
  • Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-6) –BEARS (Elo 74%, Cortana 66%)
  • Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2) –TITANS (Elo 51%, Cortana 53%)
  • Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) – JAGUARS (Elo 60%, Cortana 73%)
  • Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5) –FALCONS (Elo 73%, Cortana 70%)

Sunday-afternoon games — late window

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  • Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers –SEAHAWKS (Elo 71%, Cortana 75%)
  • New England Patriots (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers – STEELERS (Elo 51%); PATRIOTS (Cortana 55%)

“Sunday Night Football”

  • Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) –RAMS (Elo 70%, Cortana 72%)

“Monday Night Football”

  • New Orleans Saints (-6) at Carolina Panthers –SAINTS (Elo 69%, Cortana 78%)

Now check out this week’s power rankings.

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NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where all 32 teams stand going into Week 15

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