- Every week, we’re picking five games against the spread for our entry in the WestGate Las Vegas SuperContest with the goal of winning the grand prize of $US1.4 million.
- Last week, our picks went 3-2 against the spread, a winning week that still leaves us a few wins short of profitability on the year.
- This Sunday, the Packers, Raiders, and Chiefs are some of our favourite bets to cover the spread.
Right now, that looks like something of a longshot, but a hot streak at the right time could put us in contention, or at the very least, get us back into the black for the season.
Take a look below for our picks for the WestGate SuperContest, as well as our other best bets for this Sunday’s NFL action (* indicates home team).
Kansas City Chiefs* (-6.5) over Baltimore Ravens
An unstoppable force vs. an immovable object – Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs offence and the Ravens defence should be one of the best of the season.
Give the Chiefs the advantage here because they are at home, playing against a rookie quarterback making just his fourth start. Lamar Jackson has been a godsend for the Ravens, leading them to a 3-0 record since taking over the starting job, but I don’t see him being able to keep pace with the Chiefs offence.
Green Bay Packers* (-5.5) over Atlanta Falcons
It’s been clear for some time that the Packers needed to move on from head coach Mike McCarthy, and now that they finally have, I’m expecting Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offence to put on quite a show.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost four straight, playing themselves out of the playoff race and failing to break 20 points at any point during the losing streak. They still have plenty of weapons, but seem unsure how to use them, and will be far less motivated than the Packers to get a win at Lambeau.
Oakland Raiders* (+10.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Derek Carr and the Raiders kept things closer than expected last weekend against the Chiefs, playing Kansas City tough well into the second half and threatening to win the game outright.
This week, they will look to do it again, against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Through his career, Roethlisberger is just 1-9 against the spread as a double-digit road favourite. Pair that with the Steelers odd tendency to struggle on the west coast, and we’re betting Oakland all day.
Buffalo Bills* (-3) over New York Jets
In a stat that no one would have believed coming into the season – no quarterback in the NFL has scored more fantasy points over the past two weeks than Josh Allen.
While fantasy prowess doesn’t necessarily translate to on-field success, Allen’s big arm and faster-than-you-think legs make him a threat to tear up the Jets defence. Supporting him will be the Bills defence, one of the best in the league according to DVOA despite the team’s record.
The Bills just beat the Jets 41-10 three weeks ago in New York City – no reason they can’t do it again a further bit upstate.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) over Dallas Cowboys*
The Cowboys are running hot right now, but I have to back Philadelphia to win on Sunday. We all saw what the Eagles were capable of last year when their backs were against the wall, and after a rough start to the year, it appears Philly has found its footing a bit at the last possible moment.
Carson Wentz and the Eagles offence have been clicking recently and could cause trouble for a Cowboys defence still riding high off of their big shut down of the Saints.
Dallas hasn’t beaten Philadelphia twice in the same season since 2012. I don’t know how it happens, but I think the Eagles find a way to win.
LAST WEEK: 3-2
Eliminator Lock: Pittsburgh Steelers
Teams used: Saints, Rams, Vikings, Chargers, Panthers, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Bears, Chiefs, Falcons, Ravens, Seahawks
If you’re still alive in your Eliminator league, far be it from me to tell you what to do – you’ve made it this far, and with just four weeks left to survive, you’re going to have to make some tough decisions. Based on my season so far, the Steelers are the best pick I have remaining after a long look at this week’s slate. It goes against one of my SuperContest picks, but consider that a hedge.
Money Dog: Miami Dolphins (+300)
The Dolphins have beaten the Patriots outright four of the past five times they have met in Miami. It’s not pretty right now – New England appears to have once again shifted into their late-season dominance, and Miami while is improving, they’re certainly a step below the Patriots based on talent alone.
Still, a trend is a trend, and getting +300 odds on an outcome that has happened four of the past five years feels like a good bet. Close your eyes and put a little money down if you feel like gambling.
Weekly Tease: Chiefs (-0.5), Packers (+0.5), Saints (-2)
For our tease this week, we’re doubling down on two of our SuperContest picks to win outright, and adding in the Saints to win by a field goal or more.
Three teams, 6-point tease, +165 odds. Feels like easy money.
Monday Night Chaser: Vikings @ Seahawks Over 45.5
The Seahawks have played in four straight games that have cleared 45.5 points pretty easily. Ride the trend.
Check out more of our NFL coverage:
- Tom Brady’s obsession with an obscure milestone explains his bizarre kneel down on final play of Patriots’ win
- The season is already over for 13 NFL teams and 4 of them are in a race for the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft
- Bill Belichick cursed out Vikings star Adam Thielen after Thielen challenged him over a ‘cheap’ play
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