After ten weeks of the NFL season, the playoff of picture is getting clearer, but most of the spots are still up for grabs as only the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Cincinnati Bengals can be considered locks to reach the postseason.
Using Nate Silver’s “2015 NFL Predictions,” a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season will play out, we can get a better sense of the chances every team has to reach the playoffs.
Including the three teams mentioned above, who are all at >99% to make the playoffs, 25 teams still have at least a 5% chance to take one of the 12 playoff spots. Meanwhile, seven teams have already been effectively eliminated with less than a 5% chance, including the Dallas Cowboys with a 3% chance to make the playoffs, despite the return of Tony Romo this week.
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