- Week 5 of the NFL season was a wild one, with the Colts pulling off one of the most stunning upsets of the year and the Browns looking absolutely lost on national television.
- This week, the Patriots and Giants kick off the action in New England on Thursday night, followed up by a full slate of games on Sunday.
- Once again, we’re picking every game of the week against the spread with the hopes of making a little money.
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Week 5 of the NFL season was a wild one.
The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season, scoring just 13 points against the Indianapolis Colts, the Raiders took down the Bears in London, and the Ravens outlasted the Steelers in an overtime thriller.
Despite all of the chaos, or perhaps because of it, our picks had a solid week, going 9-6 against the spread to move to a 55.1% hit rate on the season thus far. Not bad!
With Week 6 action fast approaching, we’re once again picking every game on the schedule against the spread.
Take a look below at our best bets against the spread for Week 4 of the NFL season (* indicates home team).
LAST WEEK: 9-6 OVERALL: 43-35
New England Patriots* (-17) over New York Giants
The New York Giants have ruled out Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard ahead of Thursday night’s game against the Patriots, meaning rookie quarterback Daniel Jones will be facing what might be the best defence in football without his three best weapons.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick should have quite an opportunity to run up the score.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) over Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey can’t keep doing this, right? The Panthers running back has averaged more than 200 total yards over his past three games, helping Carolina to a 3-2 record and terrorizing opposing defences. The pace feels unsustainable.
With this game taking place in London, it strikes me as one to stay away from betting, but if you have to pick a side, I lean Tampa.
Kansas City Chiefs* (-4.5) over Houston Texans
After Sunday’s shocking loss to the Colts, the Chiefs feel a bit undervalued this week. Deshaun Watson went off against an overmatched Falcons defence last week. While the Kansas City defence is far from great, 426 yards and five touchdowns is a tough performance to repeat.
Tyreek Hill could be back in the Chiefs lineup after being sidelined due to injury since Week 1. So, expect Kansas City to come out firing and remind the NFL that they’re one of the most unstoppable offences in the league.
Cleveland Browns* (+1.5) over Seattle Seahawks
The Browns looked dreadful on Monday night against the 49ers, but we’re backing them to bounce back this week against the Seahawks. Seattle escaped their Thursday night game against the Rams after Los Angeles kicker Greg Zeurlin missed the game-winning field goal in the final seconds. Feels like their luck runs out this week against a Cleveland side desperate for a win.
Cincinnati Bengals (+11.5) over Baltimore Ravens*
The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t given us much reason to be confident so far this year, but this feels like too many points for a divisional game. In 12 meetings between the two teams since 2013, the Ravens have beaten the Bengals by double digits just once, with the Bengals winning eight of those matchups outright.
Jacksonville Jaguars* (-1) over New Orleans Saints
Teddy Bridgewater has looked mighty comfortable filling in for Drew Brees over the past two weeks, securing big home wins over the Cowboys and Buccaneers. This week’s road trip to Jacksonville feels like a tough spot, though, with the Jaguars passing defence still relatively strong and a stadium of fans excited for some Minshew Mania.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over Minnesota Vikings*
For the past two weeks, we’ve been successful picking both for and against the Vikings following a straightforward rule: Kirk Cousins is good against bad teams and bad against good teams. The Eagles haven’t fallen in one camp or the other in their mixed bag of a season so far, but I’m going to trust that they have a good team in them, and thus can cause Cousins some problems.
Washington Redskins (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins*
We’re backing Washington here because we’ve been betting against the Dolphins every week they have played and we’re 4-0 on the season. However, if there was ever a week to back Miami, this feels like it.
The Dolphins are fresh off of a bye week and have been told all season the front office is tanking in order to set themselves up for a successful draft next year. What better way to screw over that front office than beating one of the few other winless teams remaining and move yourself out of the top overall pick in the draft?
Probably best to just avoid betting, or even watching, this game.
Los Angeles Rams* (-3) over San Francisco 49ers
The Los Angeles Rams have scored 69 points over the past two weeks and have two losses to show for it. This is a must-win game against an undefeated divisional opponent, and the 49ers might be feeling themselves a little too much after a fiery win on Monday night over the Browns.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) over Arizona Cardinals*
It’s possible this Falcons team has already quit on head coach Dan Quinn. But assuming they haven’t, this feels like a game where Atlanta rolls by 30. The Cardinals defence is already giving up north of 400 yards per game and will have to try and figure out a way to stop Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. It’s tough to imagine them keeping pace.
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) over New York Jets*
The Cowboys have now lost two straight games and look somewhat lost on offence after an impossibly hot start to the year fuelled by games against three of the worst defences in the league.
Sam Darnold or not, the Jets are bad this year, and Dallas should have enough firepower to cruise to victory.
Denver Broncos* (-2) over Tennessee Titans
According to the Action Network, 60% of bets are on the Titans in this game, but 60% of the money is on the Broncos, meaning the big bettors in Las Vegas are backing Denver. We’ll fade the public underdog and follow the money.
Los Angeles Chargers* (-7) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers are far from great this season, but this is Philip Rivers against an undrafted third-string rookie quarterback making his first career start. I’m not going to overthink it.
Green Bay Packers* (-4.5) over Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offence has looked better and better with each passing week. While the Detriot Lions are not the pushovers I imagined they’d be at the start of the season, this feels like a game that the Packers take care of at home in primetime.
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