Two weeks into the 2018 NFL season, we’re still looking for our first winning week.
While we didn’t come out on top last week, we survived relatively unscathed – more than can be said for many bettors as underdogs covered at an impressive rate.
Our best bets saw quite an improvement, going 3-2 against the spread. Compare that to the 0-5 performance by the consensus picks in the Westgate SuperContest, and we’re having a pretty good time at the sports book.
Still, our goal this week as every week is to nail these lines as best we can, and Week 3 presents yet another full slate for us to sink our teeth into. Take a look below at our picks to prevail in this week of NFL action.
LAST WEEK: 7-9
New York Jets (+3) at Cleveland Browns
The pick: Browns -3
The logic: The Browns haven’t been home favourites since 2015. So far this year, they have found new and innovative ways to lose – a grand tradition in Cleveland football. But on Thursday night,the “Victory Fridges” will finally open.
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
The pick: Saints +3
The logic: After picking the Saints back-to-back weeks as favourites and losing, in this spot we get to grab them as an underdog. This feels like a bounce-back game for New Orleans.
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The pick: Niners +6.5
The logic: The Chiefs have been undeniably great so far this season, but their defence presents a glaring issue that will need to be resolved, and this looks like a welcome spot for a backdoor cover from Jimmy Garoppolo.
Oakland Raiders (+3) at Miami Dolphins
The pick: Dolphins -3
The logic: As unlikely as a 3-0 Dolphins start and 0-3 Raiders start seemed heading into Week 1, that’s what I’m banking on come Sunday. Oakland has fallen apart in the second half twice already, and this time will be playing in the Florida heat.
Buffalo Bills (+16.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The pick: Bills +16.5
The logic: Bills bettors are getting spotted three scores. It doesn’t feel good, but it’s the only side to be on as a bettor. Either take the dog or stay away.
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The pick: Eagles -6.5
The logic: Honestly, if I wasn’t a homer, I’d be on the Colts in this spot. But I’m an Eagles fan, and Carson Wentz is back, and Philadelphia is going to be absolutely electric for his return. Also, the Eagles defence has given up just eight points per game at home over its last six matchups at Lincoln Financial Field.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Washington Redskins
The pick: Redskins +3
The logic: It’s not pretty, but this is a situation where you have to shut your eyes and bet the home dog.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Carolina Panthers
The pick: Panthers -3
The logic: If you offered me a bet before the season that Marvin Lewis and the Bengals would start 3-0 on the season, I would have injured myself running to the bank to empty my accounts. Trusting the Panthers to take care of business at home so they can keep pace in the crowded NFC South.
Tennessee Titans (NO LINE) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The pick: Jaguars
The logic: Marcus Mariota’s status is still in doubt, but I’m probably backing the Jaguars no matter what the line lands at on Sunday. Jacksonville might have emptied the playbook to beat the Patriots in Week 2, but they’re more talented almost across the board than Tennessee.
Denver Broncos (+5.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The pick: Broncos +5.5
The logic: The Ravens have the extra rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday and are known as one of the tougher home teams in the league. Still, trust Case Keenum and the Broncos defence to keep things close.
New York Giants (+6) at Houston Texans
The pick: Texans -6
The logic: Good luck to the Giants offensive line with handling J.J. Watt. Have fun with that.
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) at Los Angeles Rams
The pick: Chargers +7
The logic: The Chargers are talented, and the Rams haven’t been tested yet this year. Even with Sean McVay’s tendency to run up the score, this is too many points for Philip Rivers and the Chargers offence.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The pick: Cardinals +5.5
The logic: The St. Louis Cardinals have scored more runs (11) in their past two games than the Arizona Cardinals have scored points (6) through two games of the 2018 NFL season. Still, it’s tough to see Mitch Trubisky as almost a 6-point road favourite, even with the Bears’ intimidating defence.
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The pick: Seahawks -1.5
The logic: Seattle is playing at home for the first time this season and favoured by less than a field goal. Feels like they find a way to get the win here.
New England Patriots (-7) at Detroit Lions
The pick: Patriots -7
The logic: Former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has given up 78 points in two games as new head coach of the Detroit Lions. Expect that total to expand significantly on Sunday night.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The pick: Steelers -1
The logic: Steelers have burned me twice this season as favourites. The Buccaneers have done the same as underdogs. Third time’s the charm though!
Now check out our power rankings heading into Week 3
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