The NFL season is nearing the quarter pole, and the computers are picking their winners for every game.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
After a rough Week 1 for Cortana, it bounced back in Weeks 2 and 3, going 11-5 both weeks and correctly picking all three games on which the two models disagreed. Meanwhile, Elo had a rough week, going 8-8, and is now 29-18 (62%) through three weeks, one game behind Cortana (30-17, 64%).
Here are the picks for Week 4, with each model’s per cent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7) — PACKERS (Elo 82%, Cortana 72%)
- New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (in London) — SAINTS (Elo 53%, Cortana 64%)
- Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9) — PATRIOTS (Elo 78%, Cortana 77%)
- Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) — COWBOYS (Elo 78%, Cortana 70%)
- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (no line) — VIKINGS (Elo 57%, Cortana 52%)
- Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Houston Texans — TEXANS (Elo 55%), TITANS (Cortana 64%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at New York Jets — JETS (Elo 59%), JAGUARS (Cortana 64%)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns — BENGALS (Elo 60%, Cortana 58%)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens — STEELERS (Elo 55%, Cortana 58%)
- Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8) — FALCONS (Elo 77%, Cortana 74%)
- New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) — BUCS (Elo 63%), GIANTS (Cortana 57%)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) — EAGLES (Elo 60%), CHARGERS (Cortana 52%)
- San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7) — CARDINALS (Elo 81%, Cortana 67%)
- Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3) — BRONCOS (Elo 63%, Cortana 55%)
- Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 69%, Cortana 80%)
- Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) — CHIEFS (Elo 78%, Cortana 61%)
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