The computer model that nailed the NFL's 2017 season has made its picks for Week 2

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  • The computer models are back making their picks for the 2018 NFL season.
  • In 2017, Microsoft’s Cortana correctly picked 68% of the games overall and 75% of the games over the final ten weeks.
  • FiveThirtyEight’s Elo also had a strong showing during the regular season, correctly picking 64% of the games.

Week 2 of the NFL season is here, and Microsoft’s Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games:Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modelling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup last season, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

Here are the picks for Week 2, with each model’s per cent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

Thursday

  • Baltimore (-1) at Cincinnati – No pick (Elo 50%); BENGALS (Cortana 60%)

Sunday

  • Carolina at Atlanta (-5.5) – FALCONS (Elo 62%, Cortana 66%)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo –BILLS (Elo 53%); CHARGERS(Cortana 70%)
  • Minnesota at Green Bay (pick’em) – VIKINGS(Elo 60%, Cortana 53%)
  • Houston (-2) at Tennessee – TITANS (Elo 70%); TEXANS (Cortana 60%)
  • Cleveland at New Orleans (-9) – SAINTS (Elo 85%, Cortana 72%)
  • Miami at New York Jets (-3) – JETS (Elo 61%, Cortana 53%)
  • Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-4.5) – STEELERS(Elo 58%, Cortana 61%)
  • Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay – EAGLES (Elo 63%); BUCS (Cortana 51%)
  • Indianapolis at Washington (-6) – REDSKINS(Elo 75%, Cortana 69%)
  • Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-13) – RAMS(Elo 74%, Cortana 79%)
  • Detroit at San Francisco (-6) – 49ERS (Elo 58%, Cortana 61%)
  • Oakland at Denver (-6) – BRONCOS (Elo 63%, Cortana 70%)
  • New England at Jacksonville (pick’em) –PATRIOTS (Elo 56%, Cortana 60%)
  • New York Giants at Dallas (-3) – COWBOYS(Elo 76%, Cortana 60%)

Monday

  • Seattle at Chicago (-3.5) – SEAHAWKS (Elo 54%); BEARS (Cortana 55%)

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