The first polls after Friday’s Liberal leadership spill have just landed and it’s a train wreck for the new government under Scott Morrison following Malcolm Turnbull’s departure.
Newspoll, conducted for The Australian, has support for the Coalition crashing to its lowest level since John Howard was booted out of government by Kevin Rudd
A fortnight ago, the Coalition under Turnbull was just two points behind Labor on 49/51, but after the leadership fiasco, voters have punished the Liberals with the margin now at 12 points with the two party-preferred vote at 56% Labor, 44% Coalition.
— The Australian (@australian) August 26, 2018
Newspoll also had the Coalition’s primary vote falling four points to 33% while Labor’s climbed above 40% for the first time under Shorten to sit at 41%.
While Turnbull lost 38 Newspolls in a row – eight more than his predecessor Tony Abbott – he always had the jump on Shorten as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s 12-point lead in mid August has evaporated with Shorten now in front for the first time since early 2015 with a six-point lead at 30 to 33 over new PM Scott Morrison.
The figures are little better in polling for Fairfax Media, conducted by ReachTEL over the weekend, which looked at three key marginal seats held by the Coalition, with voters hammering them in NSW and Victoria.
A Fairfax/IPSOS poll last weekend before the leadership spill had the Coalition 10-points behind Labor on 45-55 on a two party-preferred (TPP) basis
Crucially, voters in the Melbourne seat of Deakin have turned against one of Peter Dutton’s key backers in the spill, Michael Sukkar, who won the seat with a 6.3%, but now trails Labor on a TPP basis 47% to 53%.
The Liberal primary vote has also plummeted.
Turnbull backer Craig Laundy in the Sydney seat of Reid remains in front 52% to 48% on a TPP basis, but is down six points since the 2016 election the government won by just one seat.
The poll had Peter Dutton ahead 54-46 TPP in his Brisbane seat of Dickson, but other polls last week had him at 50-50.
The ReachTEL for Fairfax also had some pointed messages for the government and the plotters against Turnbull.
Even in Dutton’s seat, just 36.5% of voters thought the Liberal Party made the right decision to removing Malcolm Turnbull with 53.7% and 9.7% don’t know. In Sukkar’s seat, support for the spill fell to just 25.8%.
The poll found that a majority want the government under Scott Morrison to run full term and don’t want Australia to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement – a key demand of the conservative faction around Dutton and former PM Tony Abbott.
An election is due by mid-2019.
Fairfax has more on the latest polling here.
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