For the most part, people’s predictions about the future tend to be strongly rooted in the short-term past. It’s just an easy, human way of thinking about things, we suppose.
That being said, from a market perspective, 2012 is NOT shaping up like 2011 at all.
Bespoke has a big table of ETFs that it tracks that are the most above their 50-day moving average, which is a useful way of looking at momentum.
Homebuilders! Brazil! Financials!
These were not big winners in 2012.
Along the same theme, David Goldman at Inner Working observes this dramatic shift:
Our main 2012 recommendation was to take profits on utilities and dive into basic materials, especially the mining issues that got beaten up so badly last year. The S&P miners’ subsector is up 20% year to date while utilities are down by 3.5% (both multi-utilities and electrical utilities S&P subcomponents).
2012. A brave new world already.