LONDON — A new poll published on Thursday suggests that support for Scottish independence is at its highest for nine months.
A survey published by Ipsos MORI shows that when asked how they would vote in a referendum on independence for Scotland, those who were certain or likely to vote were split right down the middle: Yes 50%, No 50%.
The last poll on the question of Scottish independence showed that the vote for independence was trailing by 7%.
It also is the first time that the “Yes” camp hasn’t trailed “No” since surveys conducted immediately after the result of the June referendum on EU membership.
Here’s an illustration of the new poll published by Ipsos MORI:
This poll comes as Scottish Finish Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to talk up the possibility of demanding the UK government grants Scots the opportunity to decide the country’s future following the Brexit vote in June.
The SNP leader told the BBC that holding a referendum in autumn 2018 would be a “common sense” decision as Scots would be able to vote aided by a clearer picture of what Britain’s departure from the European will look like and entail.
Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom in 2014 but the prospect of being driven towards a hard Brexit after Scots voted to remain in the European Union has breathed new life into the independence campaign.
Another poll published last month showing a spike in support for Scottish independence was dismissed as being the result of a sampling error by polling expert John Curtice. The BMG survey indicated a 3.5% increase in support for Scotland to break away from the rest of the UK.
“A 3 point change is certainly the kind you could get simply from a sampling error or sampling variation,” Curtice told BI.
“The proposition that the UK government’s stance on Brexit has shifted Scottish public opinion is not supported by the other recent poll,” he added.
With this in mind, we’ll have to wait to see whether this Ipsos MORI survey really is the beginning of a significant swing towards Scottish independence.
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