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In Europe, attention is increasingly turning to the September 12 general election in Netherlands.The election bears more than just national importance because it could impact the handling of the eurozone crisis.
For instance Socialist Party leader Emile Roemer who is seen as a candidate for prime minister was quoted by Reuters saying that transferring any more sovereignty to the European Union would have to get through a referendum.
Opinion polls suggest that the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD) of incumbent prime minister Mark Rutte, should win about 35 out of 150 seats.
But the overall vote is unlikely to allow VVD to form a right-of-centre majority government, according to Nomura’s senior political analyst Alastair Newton.
Newton points out that this election is taking place at a time when:
- Euroscepticism in the country is significant.
- There is resentment over what is viewed as “German-imposed domestic deficit reduction targets”.
- And when the political environment is already “fragmented”.
For now Newton expects there to be drawn out week/month-long coalition negotiations after the election, “before an unstable and possibly more eurosceptic new government emerges”.
And what does he expect this government too look like?
“On balance, therefore, and without any great conviction at this stage, we lean marginally towards the current prime minister, Mark Rutte, forming a new VVD-led government comprising at least three other parties and being more left-leaning than the coalition he led after the 2010 election.
We believe that this would be the better option in terms of eurozone policymaking cohesion to address the ongoing crisis; and that it would be the more welcome of the likely outcomes to financial market participants considering both EU and Dutch domestic economic policy.”
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