We already know Netflix (NFLX) had a good winter: In late February, the DVD rental service jacked up its Q1 and full-year guidance, saying that subscriber sign-ups, revenue, and EPS were going better than predicted. Monday afternoon, we’ll find out if Netflix can beat analysts’ increased expectations when the company reports Q1 earnings.
And the stock? Netflix shares had already jumped 50% this year, hitting their all time high of $40.90 last Thursday. But on Friday, shares dropped 5% — closing at $38.56 — after Soleil Securities downgraded the stock, saying the company’s recent success is already baked in. Anything short of blowout performance and guidance could punish the stock further.
We’re especially interested in how many subscribers Netflix managed to sign up during the quarter — and how many it thinks it can sign up this quarter/year — with diminishing competition from Blockbuster (BBI), which now thinks it needs to own Circuit City (CC). And has experimenting with Web streaming or buying more-expensive Blu-ray discs hurt the company’s margins at all? We’ll also be listening for any updates on Netflix’s set-top box project with LG (and potentially other consumer electronics makers).
- Revenue: $326.9 million consensus, $324-328 million guidance
- EPS: $0.21 consensus, $0.15-0.22 guidance
- Total subscribers: 8.16-8.26 million guidance, 8.25 million Jefferies estimate, 8.2 million Soleil estimate
- Q2 guidance: $335.44 million revenue consensus, $0.39 EPS consensus
- Full year guidance: $1.37 billion revenue consensus, $1.345-1.385 billion guidance, $1.25 EPS consensus, $1.18-1.30 guidance, 8.9-9.5 million total subscriber guidance
We’ll cover Netflix’s earnings live, offering analysis beginning with the earnings release after the market closes and live coverage of the conference call at 5 p.m. ET.
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