After four gut-wrenching days of the NCAA Tournament there are now just 16 teams still alive. But the number of teams with a legit chance to win it all is much less according to the updated model by Nate Silver.
Kentucky is still the overwhelming favourite with Silver giving the Wildcats a 41% chance to finish the season undefeated, the same probability they had prior to the start of the tournament.
Arizona now has the second-best chance of becoming champs with a 14% chance followed by Duke at 12%.
In all, just five teams have at least a 5% chance of winning it all according to the model:
- Kentucky (No. 1 seed, Midwest) — 41% chance to win the tournament
- Arizona (No. 2 seed, West) — 14% chance
- Duke (No. 1 seed, South) — 12% chance
- Wisconsin (No. 1 seed, West) — 8% chance
- Gonzaga (No. 2 seed, South) — 6% chance
No team still alive in the East has more than a 4% chance of winning the tournament. Michigan State is the favourite to reach the Final Four out of that region with a 33% chance of winning their next two games.
West Virginia, North Carolina, Xavier, UCLA, and North Carolina State are the longest shots to win it all, with each of those teams given a 1% (or less) chance to be the one team still standing at the end.
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