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Each time David Stern announced a pick at the NBA draft last night, every basketball writer who published a mock draft put his credibility on the line.So whose draft predictions were the most accurate?
We took the final mock drafts of writers at eight mainstream sports websites and newspapers, and faced them off in a battle for forecasting supremacy.
Here are the eight competitors: Chad Ford of ESPN, Sam Amick of Sports Illustrated, Jonathan Givony of Draft Express (via Yahoo! Sports), the staff of NBADraft.net (via Fox Sports), Steve Alexander of Rotoworld.com (via NBC Sports), Sean Deveney of Sporting News, Mitch Lawrence of The New York Daily News, and Mark Heisler of The Los Angeles Times.
To find out whose mock draft was the most accurate, we calculated the the margin of error for each forecaster’s picks. For example, Chad Ford had Bismark Biyombo 5th in his mock draft, but Biyombo went 7th in the real draft, so Ford had an error of two spots for that pick. Then we averaged the forecaster’s error for all of their picks to find our Average Error Per Pick scale.
- The player that all the mock drafts have your team taking will probably not be taken by your team.
- Mock drafts are pretty good at predicting who will get taken, but not where they will get taken.
- Most mock drafts are only slightly different from every other mock draft.
- Chad Ford is who we thought he was.
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