There was a lot of upheaval in the NBA yesterday and many teams will look a lot different this weekend than they did last weekend.So how can you take advantage of that at the sports book?
Well, there’s one theory — explained at Pregame.com – that says most bettors tend to overreact to both good news (“The Knicks are going to the Finals!”) and the bad news. (“The Nuggets are doomed!”)
That creates an opportunity to win money by betting against the new conventional wisdom.
Teams that are perceived “winners” this week (Knicks, Nets*, Portland, maybe the Clippers) will be overvalued (or become big favourites) in the short term, so betting against them can become a solid strategy.
Meanwhile, “losers” like the Nuggets probably aren’t as terrible as everyone thinks they will be. It appeared that they were decimated by losing Anthony, but they did beat an undermanned Celtic team last night (another team that appears troubled, but probably isn’t), so those who panicked and bet against Denver will lose out.
As time goes on and gamblers become frustrated with teams that aren’t meeting expectations, the pendulum will swing the other way giving you another chance to bet against the crowd. For example, the odds will probably start to drop on the Knicks and Nets right about the time the new players start to gel with their teammates. At that point, they’ll be undervalued, you can start betting on them again … and the cycle continues.
* Note that the Pregame.com story was written before the Nets acquired Deron Williams, so their advice would surely change on them.
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