After the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Warriors were the overwhelming favourite, with Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com giving them a 51% chance to repeat as champs. Three weeks later and the Warriors are not even the favourite to reach the NBA Finals.
With the Warriors trailing 2-1 in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder are now the favourites with a 42% chance to win it all, according to Nate Silver’s model. That is up from just 7% during the second round..
The Warriors are now second at 29%, with just a 36% chance of reaching the Finals. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are still the heavy favourite in the Eastern Conference to reach the finals (71%), but are given only a 23% chance of winning Cleveland’s first NBA title.
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