The benefits of low natural gas prices have been particularly favourable for the U.S., thanks to the boom in production.
“As long as domestic gas prices remain at a significant discount vs. global natural gas and petroleum prices, industrial gas demand will benefit as North American manufacturers look to capitalise on their cost advantage,” writes Morgan Stanley commodities analyst Hussein Allidina. “Recent data points have outpaced even our bullish estimates.”
He adds he and his team are now likely to increase their 2013 demand forecast. Industrial gas demand averaged 18.3 bcf/d in Sep (+0.8 bcf/d YoY) and has now outperformed their model by an average of 0.5 bcf/d over the past 4 months.
In a note today, he writes that a structural shift can now be observed in the curve for natgas demand due to American industries and manufacturers.
Here’s his chart:
Photo: Morgan Stanley