Robert Hall, the Stanford economist who heads the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee explains why it’s time for recovery-deniers to throw in the towel.
Jobs, one the last data points to react to a rebounding economy, are now clearly growing. That’s a huge sign:
“I would say ‘pretty clear’ is a good description” for whether the economic contraction has ended, he said.
Among the top indicators the group uses is payrolls, according to its Web site. The government revised the January and February job count up by a combined 62,000, putting the March gain at 224,000 after including the updated data.
“It’s great news that employment has finally stopped shrinking,” Hall, a Stanford University professor, said.
Today’s report showed the payroll count from the government’s survey of businesses and the employment numbers from a separate survey of households have both been heading higher, Hall said.
“That is looking better now,” he said. “I think the odds favour a continuing expansion in employment, but I don’t have great confidence.”
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