A month ago, immediately after the Republican convention, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had about an even chance of getting elected president, according to political analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.
Since then, however, Trump has collapsed in the poll averages and betting markets, and Clinton is now the overwhelming favourite.
The good news for Trump fans is that, in the past week, Trump has bounced off his lows. The real-estate developer and former reality-television star now has a 15% chance of getting elected, says Silver.
Here’s where things stand …
In the latest national poll average from RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 6.5-point lead.
Clinton has a much more dominant lead on betting and prediction markets. She never completely lost her advantage here, but the gap did narrow. Now, reflecting the current consensus, it’s wide.
PredictWise, for example, puts the Democrat’s odds of winning at 79%, close to the highest level ever.
The Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair show similar patterns.
The data-based political analysts generally agree that Clinton is way ahead.
Using a state-by-state poll average, for example, FiveThirtyEight’s Silver estimates that Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning are even higher than they are on the betting markets — 85%. These odds have fallen a bit in recent days, however. Last week, FiveThirtyEight put Clinton’s odds over 90%.
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