After 12 weeks of the NFL season, the New England Patriots are still the heavy favourite to win the Super Bowl.
Using Nate Silver’s “2015 NFL Predictions,” a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 13, the New England Patriots are still the favourite with a 28% chance to win the Super Bowl, down from 33% a week ago. The Carolina Panthers (20%) are the favourite in the NFC.
In fact, according to Silver’s model, there is an 80% chance the Super Bowl will be won by one of the five teams:
- New England Patriots, 28%
- Carolina Panthers, 20%
- Arizona Cardinals, 13%
- Denver Broncos, 10%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 9%
The Green Bay Packers (5%) are the only other team with more than a 3% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
At the other end of the spectrum, ten teams can be scratched off as playoff contenders with less than a 5% chance of grabbing one of the 12 playoff spots. Those teams are the Chargers, Browns, Titans, 49ers, Ravens, Raiders, Rams, Saints, Jaguars, and Dolphins.
You can see the full projections at FiveThirtyEight.
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