After the divisional playoff matchups, there are now just four teams left standing in the NFL, and the New England Patriots are still the heavy favourite to lift the Lombardi Trophy, according to the latest model by Nate Silver, but it was the Atlanta Falcons who received the biggest boost.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the playoffs thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team has of winning the Super Bowl.
The Patriots were the eventual Super Bowl champions in 43% of the simulations, up from 35% a week ago. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons’ chances jumped from 13% to 25%, the biggest jump among the four semifinalists. That was due in large part to the loss by the Dallas Cowboys, which now means the NFC Championship game will be played in Atlanta.
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