There are now 9 teams with a legit shot to win the Super Bowl

After three weeks of the NFL season only nine teams still have a legit shot to lift the Lombardi Trophy, and the New England Patriots are still the heavy favourite.

Using Nate Silver’s “2015 NFL Predictions,” a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.

Heading into Week 4, the Patriots are the favourite with a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl. They are also already nearly a lock for the postseason with a 92% chance to make the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers are the favourite in the NFC with a 13% chance to win the Super Bowl.

In all, there are now nine teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl after three weeks:

  1. New England Patriots, 19%
  2. Green Bay Packers, 13%
  3. Denver Broncos, 12%
  4. Arizona Cardinals, 7%
  5. Seattle Seahawks, 7%
  6. Cincinnati Bengals, 6%
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers, 5%
  8. Carolina Panthers, 5%
  9. Dallas Cowboys, 5%

The Atlanta Falcons (4%) and Buffalo Bills (3%) just missed the cut and were the only other teams given more than a 2% chance of winning it all.

The Seahawks were a slight favourite over the Patriots prior to the season but have fallen to fifth.

At the other end of the spectrum, for the first time we have teams without a legit shot to make the playoffs. Both the Chicago Bears (3%) and Cleveland Browns (3%) have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7%) and Washington Redskins (7%) are both not far behind.

Here are the 8 teams with the best chance to win each division:

  • AFC East — New England Patriots, 74% chance to win their division
  • AFC North — Cincinnati Bengals, 51%
  • AFC South — Indianapolis Colts, 45%
  • AFC West — Denver Broncos, 75%
  • NFC East — Dallas Cowboys, 52%
  • NFC North — Green Bay Packers, 78%
  • NFC South — Atlanta Falcons, 50%
  • NFC West — Arizona Cardinals, 50%

You can see the full projections at Five Thirty Eight.

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