Nate Silver just updated his NCAA Tournament forecast, and Louisville is an even bigger favourite than ever.
Here are each team’s odds of winning it all, according to Silver’s numbers:
- Louisville: 55%
- Michigan: 21.2%
- Syracuse: 19%
- Wichita State: 4.7%
So there’s a better chance of Louisville winning the title than Louisville not winning the title.
The clear reason why the Cardinals’ chances are so high is that they get to play Wichita State in the Final Four. Silver gives them an 85% chance of advancing to the title game.
On the other hand, the Michigan-Syracuse semifinal game is about 50-50 (actually, 51.9-48.1).
So Michigan and Syracuse have to win two tough games to win the title, while Louisville only has to win one.
Louisville was the slight favourite coming into the tournament. They were the only No. 1 seed to advance to the Final Four (no other 2 or 3-seeds made it either). Even though they lost Kevin Ware in injury, they’re still the alpha dog going into the weekend in Atlanta.
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