When FiveThiryEight’s Nate Silver says something about sports, we listen. So it was interesting to see him write at length today about exactly why the Knicks would be smart to keep Jeremy Lin.The argument is pretty straightforward — Lin makes the Knicks enough money off the court to justify paying him like a superstar and taking a massive luxury tax hit in 2014-15. Lin’s pricey, but he’s too valuable from a business point of view to let him go.
But Silver also had some pretty good insights into more general issues involving the Knicks. Here’s the money paragraph:
“Sports franchises often fear uncertainty, or they perceive it wrongly. During the past decade or two, under the tenure of their owner James L. Dolan, the Knicks have frequently paid top dollar for brand-name players who seem to have proven their worth. Yet, these veteran players have often struggled with age and injury, their contracts becoming white elephants. What seems like a risk-averse strategy really isn’t — it’s just that all the risk is to the downside.”
Basically the Knicks like signing old guys who can only get worse rather than betting on young players who have the ability to get better.
Lin is the latter.
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