Nate Silver’s model has nailed 80% of the NFL playoff games, and now it has made its Super Bowl projection

Tom Brady. Jim Rogash/Getty Images
  • Nate Silver’s NFL projection model is giving the New England Patriots a 58% chance to win the Super Bowl.
  • The 58% translates to the Patriots being a 2.5-point favourite.
  • The Patriots are a 4.5-point favourite in most Las Vegas sportsbooks.

The New England Patriots are the betting favourite to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII, and Nate Silver’s model at FiveThirtyEight agrees.

Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the playoffs thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team had of winning every playoff game and the Super Bowl.

So far, the model is 8-2 in the playoffs, having correctly picked both the Patriots and the Eagles to win their conference title games. The only games that Silver’s model missed so far were the Tennessee Ttians’ Wild Card upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round.

Now, with just the Big Game remaining, the model is giving the Patriots a 58% chance of beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

Nick Foles
Nick Foles. Elsa/Getty

The percentage translates to the Patriots being a 2.5-point favourite. As of Monday morning, most Las Vegas sportsbooks have the Patriots as a 4.5-point favourite. The Patriots opened as a 6-point favourite in Vegas.

Before the season, Silver’s model had the Patriots as the heavy favourite to win the Super Bowl with an 18% chance to win it all, twice as much as any other team. The Eagles were in the middle of the pack with a 2% chance to win the championship. In fact, the Eagles were given only a 21% chance to win their own division, behind both the Dallas Cowboys (34%) and the New York Giants (25%).

The Eagles were given a 15% chance to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs started. The Patriots were at 31%.