Obama’s odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we’re tracking:
- Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast
- Intrade’s prediction market
- Betfair’s prediction market
First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama’s strong performance in the second debate hasn’t yet factored into the polls he looks at.
Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high 50s.
Obama’s odds of winning have fallen sharply from their peaks before the first debate, but the longer term trend actually continues to climb. On both prediction markets, Obama’s “stock” is now considerably higher than it was after the conventions in August.
These “odds,” it’s worth noting, contrast sharply with the nationwide Gallup poll of likely voters, which shows Romney with a very impressive 6-point lead.
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