NATE SILVER: Obama Is Collapsing

Obama’s odds of winning the re-election have collapsed since the first presidential debate, according to three separate measures:

  • Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast
  • Intrade’s prediction market
  • Betfair’s prediction market

First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama only a 71% chance of reelection. That sounds high, but it’s down from 86% a week ago. And Silver says the Romney surge may continue. He says that it’s still too early to call the election a “toss-up,” but he also says that we may be getting there.

Nate Silver Obama Odds


On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have dropped to 62% from nearly 80%.

Intrade Obama odds


And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have dropped from over 80% to the mid 60s:


That one debate could have had such a large impact seems to have shocked most political prognosticators. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens in the next two.

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