Obama’s odds of winning the re-election have collapsed since the first presidential debate, according to three separate measures:
- Nate Silver’s aggregate poll forecast
- Intrade’s prediction market
- Betfair’s prediction market
First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama only a 71% chance of reelection. That sounds high, but it’s down from 86% a week ago. And Silver says the Romney surge may continue. He says that it’s still too early to call the election a “toss-up,” but he also says that we may be getting there.
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have dropped to 62% from nearly 80%.
That one debate could have had such a large impact seems to have shocked most political prognosticators. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens in the next two.
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