Statistician Nate Silver warned on Sunday that Hillary Clinton’s path to capturing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House now appears narrower than President Barack Obama’s path at this point in 2012.
In an appearance on ABC’s “This Week,” the FiveThirtyEight chief claimed Clinton is a “2-to-1 favourite,” but noted that recent polls show Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with a slight edge in electoral college-heavy states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.
“The electoral college maths is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago, where four years ago we had Obama ahead 320-some electoral votes. Clinton has about 270,” Silver said.
“So she’s one state away from potentially losing the electoral college. You’d rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump’s, but it’s not a terribly safe position.”
While other polling aggregators like the New York Times’ Upshot and HuffPost Pollster have put Clinton’s chances of winning around 84% and 98% respectively, Silver’s model gives Trump a greater chance of winning.
Silver’s confidence about Trump’s strength hasn’t been without its critics.
The Huffington Post’s Ryan Grim provoked Silver’s ire on Saturday after Grim pointed out that FiveThirtyEight’s model uses “trend-line adjustments,” which creates a regression based on a series of assumptions about the strength of the polls and the pollster’s past reliability.
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