Photo: Courtesy of CNN
Some heady conclusions from the world’s top number cruncher.The NYT‘s Nate Silver has taken at look at Herman Cain‘s poll numbers as well as some “non-polling factors” and drawn some interesting conclusions: Herman Cain should not be dismissed.
Has there ever been a candidate with such strong polling but such weak fundamentals? Almost certainly not, at least not at this relatively advanced stage of the race….The fact that Mr. Cain has made it this far with such apparently weak fundamentals — we’re less than 10 weeks away from the Iowa caucuses — is itself remarkable. It implies that there is either something fundamentally unusual about this year’s Republican nomination process, or perhaps that some sort of “new normal” has been established and that the old rules of how you win a nomination no longer carry as much weight.
In Mr. Cain’s case, I think we are dealing with an instance where there is considerable uncertainty. Not only do I not know how I would go about estimating the likelihood that Mr. Cain will win the Republican nomination — I’m not sure that there is a good way to do so at all.
But I do know what an analyst should not do: he should not use terms like “never” and “no chance” when applied to Mr. Cain’s chances of winning the nomination, as many analysts have.
Read his full assessment here. Also? He looking for experts “willing to gamble their jobs on their predictions and would promise to stop writing about politics if Mr. Cain in fact wins the nomination.”
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