Nate Silver published his annual NCAA Tournament forecast on FiveThirtyEight today.And guess what, you are just as smart as his fancy computer model because he has Kentucky has the heavy favourite too.
According to Silver’s forecast, the Wildcats have a 57.1% probability of reaching the Final Four and a 26.1% probability of winning the whole thing.
You should check out the entire chart here, but here are his top eight teams:
Kentucky: 57.1% to make the Final Four, 26.1% to win it all
Ohio State: 40.9% to make the Final Four, 14.6% to win it all
UNC: 37.1% to make the Final Four, 10.9% to win it all
Kansas: 35.1% to make the Final Four, 9.1% to win it all
Syracuse: 28.2% to make the Final Four, 7.0% to win it all
Missouri: 25.9% to make the Final Four, 5.2% to win it all
Michigan State: 19.8% to make the Final Four, 3.8% to win it all
Duke: 16.5% to make the Final Four, 3.7% to win it all
So to translate his forecast: the consensus favourites are the favourites to win it all.
There are some interesting takeaways when you dive into the nitty-gritty of the forecast though:
- He gives 14th-seeded Belmont a 44.7% chance to upset 3rd-seeded Georgetown
- He gives 8th-seeded Memphis a 9.9% chance to make the Final Four — the 10th-highest probability in the field.
- He has Michigan State as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed, with 58.2% chance to reach the Sweet 16.
- His favourite 12 seed is Long Beach State, which has a 32.1% chance in the first round and a 13.8% chance to reach the second weekend.
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