Nate Silver updated his forecast for the NCAA Tournament, and things are still looking bleak for America’s team, Florida Gulf Coast.
FGCU now has a 0.019% chance of winning it all, Silver’s model says. That works out to 1 in 5180 odds.
Before the tournament the school’s odds were 0.0001% (1 in 79322), so things have improved considerably, but not to the point that you’d call a FGCU national title “realistic.”
So why are the odds still so small?
FGCU has a really tough path to the Final Four. The other three teams in its bracket (Kansas, Michigan, and Florida) are seeded 4th or higher. In addition, all the stats say Florida is one of the five best teams in college hoops, even though they’re just a 3-seed.
So it would take two monumental upsets for FGCU to get to the Final Four, and they’d still have to win two more games after that.
Here are Silver’s odds for FGCU to advance from here on out:
- Elite 8: 5.6%
- Final Four: 0.76%
- Title game: 0.13%
- Winning it all: 0.019%
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