Here are Nate Silver's Final Four picks

Karl anthony townsAndy Lyons/Getty ImagesKentucky is the massive favourite.

The undefeated Kentucky Wildcats are the overwhelming favourite to win the NCAA Tournament, according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model.

Silver gives Kentucky a 41% chance to win the tournament. No other team has better than a 11% chance.

To give you an idea of how big a favourite Kentucky is, last year’s favourite to win the tournament (Florida) had a 14% chance of winning it all in Silver’s model.

Here are the favourites to make the Final Four according to Silver’s odds (check out his full numbers here):

  • Kentucky (#1 seed, midwest) — 72% chance to make Final Four
  • Arizona (#2 seed, west) — 46% chance
  • Villanova (#1 seed, east) — 45% chance
  • Duke (#1 seed, south) — 32% chance

Unlike last year, when Silver’s model had two #4 seeds as favourites to make the Final Four, he’s going pretty much all chalk here. The only region that goes against seeds is the west, where Silver has Arizona as the favourite over #1 seed Wisconsin.

Ken Pomeroy, the most respected statistics-centric college basketball commentator out there, also likes Arizona. His numbers have UofA as the second-best team in the entire tournament behind Kentucky.

The bracket (click to enlarge, via CBS):

Here are the Vegas odds to win it all. Kentucky is the huge favourite:

  • Kentucky, 1/1
  • Duke, 13/2
  • Wisconsin, 13/2
  • Villanova, 8/1
  • Arizona, 12/1
  • Virginia, 17/1
  • Gonzaga, 22/1
  • North Carolina, 25/1
  • Iowa State, 35/1
  • Baylor, 40/1
  • Kansas, 40/1
  • Notre Dame, 50/1
  • Utah, 55/1
  • Maryland, 60/1
  • Michigan State, 60/1
  • Oklahoma, 60/1
  • SMU, 60/1

The tournament starts on Thursday.

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