Obama’s odds of winning re-election continue to rise, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.
Obama also continues to hold a commanding lead on betting markets Intrade and Betfair.
This despite the continued release of some national polls, namely Gallup, that continue to look good for Romney.
(The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, Silver says, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver’s odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college–and, with it, the Presidency.)
Let’s go to the data…
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 75% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it’s climbing back toward the 80% peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds are holding in the low 60% range from a startlingly low 54% a few days ago.
In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead in the race for 270 electoral votes. And he has extended it considerably over the past week.
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