NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Surged Back To 74%

Obama’s odds of winning re-election have risen substantially this week according to all three sources we’re monitoring: Polling guru Nate Silver and betting markets Intrade and Betfair.

This despite the continued release of some national polls that have looked great for Romney.

Let’s go to the data…

First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 74% chance of reelection. That’s up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it’s climbing back toward the 80% peak Obama hit just before the first debate.

Nate Silver Election Odds

Photo: Nate Silver, New York Times


On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama’s odds have climbed back to 63% from a startlingly low 54% a few days ago.

Intrade election odds

Photo: Intrade


Obama intrade long

Photo: Intrade


And, on Betfair, Obama’s odds have climbed back to nearly 70% from a low of nearly 60% a few days ago.

Betfair election odds

Photo: Betfair

In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead in the race for 270 electoral votes. And he has been extending it this week.

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