Renowned statistician Nate Silver’s Wednesday election forecast gave Donald Trump his best odds of winning since late July.
In his “Polls-plus” model, the Republican nominee has a 34.7% chance of winning in November. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was still sitting at a 65.3% chance of victory.
But the model showed the Electoral College projection tightening significantly. Silver’s model had Trump as more likely to win Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio, the latter of which has voted in-step with the nation in every election since 1964.
Clinton, in Silver’s model, held a 294.2 to 243.6 edge in the Electoral College projection. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to secure the presidency.
The model also showed Clinton with a slim 47% to 44.5% edge in the popular vote, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson receiving 7.2% of the vote.
The last time Trump was above 35% in the model was July 31, when Silver’s forecast showed Trump with a 39.1% chance of winning the presidency.
View the projection below:
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