Nate Silver is giving a Q&A over at the sports site Deadspin right now, and it’s already incredibly interesting.
Silver started as a baseball analyst initially and designed the PECOTA system. He has answered questions on everything from baseball to his dead-on election predictions.
In one early highlight of the Q&A, Someone asked whether he planned to retire on top or if he’ll be back for the 2014 cycle. Here is Silver’s response:
As tempting as it might be to pull a Jim Brown/Sandy Koufax and just mic-drop/retire from elections forecasting, I expect that we’ll be making forecasts in 2014 and 2016. Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. But the 2016 G.O.P. primary seems almost certain to be epic.
Other takeaways so far:
- Silver didn’t vote because “I don’t think that somebody who is observing or predicting behaviour should also be participating in the “experiment”.
- On whether he expects Democrats to turn on him once he starts projecting their losses:
It seems as though a higher percentage of conservatives are more inclined to question empirical methods, to put it diplomatically.
- He says pundits “probably harm democracy in their own small way.”
- On Sam Wang, a rival in statistical forecasting: “I think we probably all feel some solidarity as partners in the War on Bull****.”
- favourite theorem: “Bayes, duh.”
- favourite TV Show: “I like the show called The National Football League. 95% of my TV viewing is sports, or HBO.”
- I he ever wanted to cash in, he’d go into finance because politics “can be a bit evil”
We’ll have more highlights as the Q&A progresses.
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