College football’s final four is set as Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia will compete for the championship.
With just three games to go that truly matter, Alabama is a slight favourite to win it all, according to Nate Silver’s model at FiveThirtyEight.com, with a 30% chance to win it all. Oklahoma is the longest shot at 19%.
When we look a little closer, we see that the final four is really just a big toss-up at this point. According to the model, Alabama has just a slight edge over Clemson to reach the championship game, 52% to 48%, suggesting that whoever wins that semifinal will be favoured in the championship game. Georgia’s edge over Oklahoma in the other semifinal is only slightly bigger at 54% to 46%.
Here are the odds for each of the four teams to win the championship based on thousands of simulations of the playoff:
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