Nate Silver’s model has spoken and Jay Boice has revealed its predictions for the College Football Playoff on Five Thirty Eight.
According to the model, which simulates the three games thousands of times, No. 4 Oklahoma has the best chance to win the championship, with a 41% to win the second College Football Playoff. The most common result has Oklahoma beating No. 2 Alabama in the final.
Here are the chances for each team to win the championship:
- Oklahoma, 41%
- Alabama, 34%
- Clemson, 15%
- Michigan State, 10%
Interestingly, Silver’s model makes Oklahoma a heavy favourite over top-seeded Clemson, giving Oklahoma a 66% chance to win their semifinal matchup. Meanwhile, Alabama has a 68% chance to beat No. 3 seed Michigan State.
While most were in agreement of the four teams chosen for the playoff, there has been some argument that either No. 5 Iowa, whose only loss was a last-minute loss to No. 3 Michigan State, or No. 6 Stanford, who won the Pac-12 against a tough schedule, was more deserving than Oklahoma. The argument against the Sooners is that they lost to Texas and did not play in a conference championship game.
Despite those protestations, Silver’s model shows that Oklahoma was indeed worthy of being included as they may indeed be the best team in the country right now.
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