NATE SILVER: The Odds On The National Championship Game Are Literally 50-50

The NCAA national championship between UConn and Kentucky is a 50-50 contest, according to Nate Silver’s statistical model.

To be more precise, it’s a 50.1-49.9 contest.

Silver gives UConn a 50.126% chance of winning, and Kentucky a 49.874% chance.

He rounds that off to 50-50 (via FiveThirtyEight):

Based purely on seeds, this is the most unlikely national championship game ever. UConn is a 7-seed and Kentucky is an 8-seed. He gave UConn a 2% chance of making the final game before the tournament, and Kentucky a 4% chance.

The Vegas sportsbooks have Kentucky as a 2.5-point favourite.

Silver says it’s dead even, so you could get some value by betting on UConn.

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