The NCAA national championship between UConn and Kentucky is a 50-50 contest, according to Nate Silver’s statistical model.
To be more precise, it’s a 50.1-49.9 contest.
Silver gives UConn a 50.126% chance of winning, and Kentucky a 49.874% chance.
He rounds that off to 50-50 (via FiveThirtyEight):
Based purely on seeds, this is the most unlikely national championship game ever. UConn is a 7-seed and Kentucky is an 8-seed. He gave UConn a 2% chance of making the final game before the tournament, and Kentucky a 4% chance.
The Vegas sportsbooks have Kentucky as a 2.5-point favourite.
Silver says it’s dead even, so you could get some value by betting on UConn.
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