The wonderfully temperate summer we’ve enjoyed to this point has given some sceptics a talking point to cast doubt on the belief that the planet’s temperature is rising.
That’s nonsense in Nate Silver’s opinion. And he’s willing to put his money where his mouth is to prove it.
Silver became irked by John Hinderaker, of conservative blog PowerLine who said that it has been so cold in his home of Minneapolis that there might not even be a summer this year.
Hinderaker’s wrong, Silver writes. In fact, since summer began in Minneapolis, the tempature has been above average 15 times, and below average 13 times.
In Silver’s opinion, lazy generalising by people like Hinderaker is making too many people sceptical about global warming. So, he’s throwing out a challenge:
You are eligible for this challenge if:
1. You live in the United States and provide me with your home address and telephone number (I will provide you with mine) and,
2. You are a regular (at least once weekly) contributor to a political, economics or science blog with an Alexa traffic global ranking of 50,000 or lower.
The reason for the latter requirement is because I want to be able to shame/humiliate you if you back out of the challenge or refuse to pay, as I’d assume you’d do the same with me.
The rules of the challenge are as follows:
1. For each day that the high temperature in your hometown is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above average, as listed by Weather Underground, you owe me $25. For each day that it is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit below average, I owe you $25.
2. The challenge proceeds in monthly intervals, with the first month being August. At the end of each month, we’ll tally up the winning and losing days and the loser writes the winner a check for the balance.
3. The challenge automatically rolls over to the next month until/unless: (i) one party informs the other by the 20th of the previous month that he would like to discontinue the challenge (that is, if you want to discontinue the challenge for September, you’d have to tell me this by August 20th), or (ii) the losing party has failed to pay the winning party in a timely fashion, in which case the challenge may be canceled at the sole discretion of the winning party.
If you fit the criteria, and you’d like to prove Silver wrong, then click over to his site and send him an email. Hurry up, though. Monday is the deadline to apply.
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