We’ll be cranking up the politics coverage for the next 48 hours or so, since this is an absolutely crucial election with ramifications for years to come (probably).
Everyone expects the GOP to win big, including liberal politics and stats guru Nate Silver.
Tonight he has a particularly ominous message for his side: The GOP win could be much bigger than anyone is expecting.
He has 5 basic hypothetical reasons this could easily happen:
- Cross-ballot effects: Moderates turning out for high-profile governorships may end up voting for GOPers down-ballot that they otherwise wouldn’t have voted for.
- Unlikely voters end up showing up and breaking towards the GOP.
- All undecideds could end up breaking against incumbents.
- The “Scott Brown Effect”: It’s possible that GOPers in deep-blue areas may see this as a once-in-a-lifetime chance to send one of their own to Washington.
- Likely voter models — which all pollsters use — may be calibrated to big Democratic years like 2006 and 2008, and thus may be inaccurate this year.
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