We just mentioned Tim Geithner telling people not to worry about all this trade war talk, because China is already on the path towards a revalued yuan.
At the same event, Nassim Taleb told people not to listen to Geithner.
Taleb explained his simple metric for judging whose economic opinions are worth his time: “Did someone predict the crisis before it happened? … If the answer is no, I don’t want to hear what the person says. If the person saw the crisis coming, then I want to hear what they have to say.”
Other unlucky economic figures who failed Taleb’s test included writers Paul Krugman and Thomas Friedman.
Who knew Nassim put so much stock in the ability of people to predict one event correctly?