BTW, If You Had Followed Nassim Taleb's Advice In 2010, You Would've Gotten Crushed

Earlier today, Black Swan author Nassim Taleb’s appeared on CNBC.  His key takeaway quote: “I own stocks because I don’t trust Treasury bond.”  This got the financial bloggers all a-twitter

FT Alphaville’s Cardiff Garcia sent out this Tweet:


The Bloomberg article dated February 2010 is titled Taleb Says ‘Every Human’ Should Short U.S. Treasuries and it speaks for itself. From the article:

It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific.

Here’s a look at how the 10-year Treasury Note yield performed since Taleb advised “every single human being” to short Treasuries.  Basically, if you followed Taleb’s advice, you’d be toast.

chartUS 10-Yr Treasury Note Yield

Photo: Bloomberg

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