It’s time to start looking forward to a new year and what it might bring.
Business Insider reached out to a bunch of smart people on Wall Street to get their takes on what they will be watching for in the market in 2016. One of those people is veteran trader Dan Nathan, editor of Risk Reversal. He sent us two charts, and both tell dark stories about the year to come.
The first is really simple. It’s just the Nasdaq 100 since 2009.
“In my opinion there are few equity indices that pose as much risk to the bull market in global equities as does the Nasdaq 100,” Nathan said in an email to Business Insider. “Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon make up 40% of the weight, or $2.15 trillion in market cap.”
Together those companies have come to be known as FANG. The market has noticed that they have been propping up indices, including the S&P 500, and that has people worried.
“There are few that thought Apple could and would correct this year, it is now down 21% from its all time highs, the other 4 stocks are far more vulnerable in 2016 given 2015 performance, sentiment and valuation,” Nathan continued.
He wrote: “Microsoft is at a post financial crisis P/E high of nearly 20x, Facebook trades 12x expected 2016 sales, Amazon is only expected to have $2.3 billion operating profit on $107 billion in sales, Google trades 7x expected 2016 sales. These stocks are masking a bear market in a majority of Nasdaq stocks.”
Hike? What hike?
Nathan’s second chart is the 10-year US Treasury yield.
“This is also an amazing chart…1 year chart of the yield on 10-year Treasury, exact spot where it ended 2014 and its 200-day moving average also 2.17%,” he wrote.
“What I find most interesting about this is that the Fed ended QE in Q4 2014, investors expected a rate increase in 2015, which we just got, and without QE and first rate increase in nine years, longer term rates still aren’t going up. Sure the 2-year Treasury rate is but that is all the Fed funds rate increase,” he continued.
In other words, the market says rates should stay low for a long time. That doesn’t say great things about global growth.
So if you’re looking for a reason to be worried about 2016, look no further.
Disclosure: Jeff Bezos is an investor in Business Insider through hispersonal investment company Bezos Expeditions.