The economics team at the NAB expects average capital city house prices to cool to around 4% over the year to September 2015 and around 2% in the following year.
In its Residential Property Index report, the bank says:
“We don’t believe we have a housing bubble, but our outlook is that increasing house prices will be more modest than they have been in recent times because of rising unemployment, sluggish household income growth, affordability concerns, cost of living pressures and high levels of household debt.”
This chart shows the NAB city by city growth forecasts:
Brisbane (5.9%) and Sydney (4.5%) are expected to lead the market for capital growth in the next year, followed by Adelaide (3.8%) and Melbourne (2.8%), with Perth (1.7%) lagging.
Brisbane (3.5%), Adelaide (2.3%) and Sydney (2.2%) are forecast to remain the best cities for capital gains in the 12 months September 2016, with house prices up 1.6% in Melbourne and 1.1% in Perth.
Of course, price growth isn’t even across suburbs in each city. Some will get a lot more expensive and some will lose value.
Here are the suburbs tipped to do better than average:
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