Music Business Ailing; Bob Dylan Business Thriving

More grim projections for the music business, this time from Jupiter Media. Analyst David Card sums it up here:

Digital is where the growth is, but it won’t be enough to “save the industry.” That is, sales of downloads, on-demand subscription services, and ring tones, won’t compensate for declining CD sales, and consumer spending overall will still wither. Some highlights:Combined, spending on downloads and subscriptions — what we call “digital music” — will surpass $1.3 billion in 2007 and grow to $3.4 billion in 2012. That means digital music, which accounted for only 9% of consumer spending on music and ring tones in 2006, will total a whopping 34% in 2012. That’s because the bottom continues to drop out of CD sales, and the overall pie ends up shrinking.

Meanwhile, in somewhat related news, we have spent $30 on Bob Dylan in the last two weeks and will shortly shell out another $20. Some of that money was actually spent on music; assume that Dylan himself pockets 10% or less of our total spend.

* $9.99 “No Direction Home” Martin Scorsese-directed PBS documentary, purchased on Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes.

* $19.99 “I’m Not There” two-CD Soundtrack, purchased (for old-times’ sake) at Other Music.

* $20.00 (est) Two tickets to “I’m Not There,” to be purchased at the local theatre this coming weekend.

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