MUNSTER: iPhone Lines Up 83% Year Over Year


Photo: Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has a note out this morning on the iPhone 5.He says lines for the iPhone are up 83% on a year over year basis, and he believes Apple will sell 8 million iPhones this weekend.

Here’s his brief note:

Based on our observations of iPhone 5 lines in New York, Boston, and Minneapolis, we continue to believe the company is capable of selling 8 million iPhone 5s, the mid-point of our prior 6-10 million expectation. We believe the company, as it has traditionally, will announce a launch weekend sales figure on Monday. Additionally, the fanfare around the phone and largely positive reviews from technology writers give us confidence that demand exists for Apple to sell 49 million phones in the December quarter, provided the company can make them fast enough. We believe the buy side currently expects 45-50 million in December. We reiterate our Overweight rating and $910 target.

  • Lines Up Y/Y Despite Greater Pre-Order Total Reads Meaningfully Positive. We have counted iPhone launch day lines at every launch since the iPhone 3G in 2008. We believe that based on our count of 775 customers in line for the iPhone 5 at the flagship 5th Avenue store, demand for the iPhone 5 is higher than any previous launch. We believe the line for the iPhone 5 was 70% greater than the line for the iPhone 4S despite Apple taking 2x as many online pre-orders. The trend of Apple product lines at the flagship store had been decreasing, we believe, due to the company taking a greater number of online pre-orders. For the three total stores we observed with Y/Y comps, the average line was 83% longer. Given the strength of the line for the iPhone 5, we are incrementally more confident in Apple’s ability to sell 8 million phones in the launch weekend.

┬áDon’t Miss: iPhone 5 Unboxed!

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