Apple analyst Gene Munster is out with a note predicting 1 million in iPad sales on Friday, the launch day for the new iPad.Assuming an average sales price of $650, that would be $650 million in sales that day from that product alone.
Here’s how Munster gets there:
- Recap of Past iPad Launches. Apple sold 300k iPads on launch day when the original iPad was first released (4/3/10). With the iPad 2, supply was very constrained, the company did not allow pre-orders and stores sold out quickly on launch day (3/11/11). Specifically, iPad 2 was announced on 3/2/11, online preorders began at 1am PT the same day the product launched in stores (3/11/11) and within several hours the shipment lead-times rose from 3-5 days to 2-3 weeks. Unfortunately, the company did not give a launch day sales figure, likely due to severe supply constraints artificially suppressing the number.
- iPhone 4 Figures Show Similar Launch In Device Life-Cycle. Since the launch of the first iPad, Apple has sold just over 55m iPads to date. And Apple launched the iPhone 4 in 5 countries after having sold over 50m iPhones through the Mar-10 quarter. The company took 600k pre-orders in one day (6/15/10) before systems were overloaded and pre-orders were halted. Then on 6/24 retail sales began and by 6/26 (with 3 days of sales) the company had sold 1.7m iPhone 4 units. Given the new iPad will be sold in 12 countries on 3/16, we are confident the company will sell over 1m on launch day.
Munster has had some trouble estimating iPad launch day sales in the past. When the first iPad came out he predicted 600,000-700,000 sold. Turns out it was 300,000. For the iPad 2 he predicted 500,000 on opening day, but Apple didn’t release a number.
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