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Ron Paul and Mitt Romney occupy the top two slots in Iowa. And the race is very close, so turnout and being organised will be the key to victory.In general, Mitt Romney does best with older voters. Ron Paul is leading among his enthusiastic core of younger voters.
Bad weather favours passionate, and depresses the turnout of older folks. The best weather for Ron Paul would be a small blizzard. His supporters are by far the most passionate about his candidacy. And would walk through a hurricane to vote for him.
Unfortunately, the weather looks pretty mild today. Cool, but not freezing, and only a 10 per cent chance of rain in some parts of the state.
This means plenty of older voters are going to head to their precincts.
So it looks like Ron Paul is going to have to win this one on organisation, and youth turnout.
It worked for Obama in 2008.
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